Warning about War

Why do some warnings of war provoke swift action, while others are buried in bureaucracies or dismissed outright?

This course unpacks the complex politics behind conflict early warning and response. Moving beyond the tired mantra of “lacking political will,” it investigates how credibility, timing, institutional culture, and messenger identity shape whether warnings are heard, believed, and acted upon.

Blending perspectives from intelligence studies, peace research, and foreign policy analysis, students will explore how warnings work — or fail — in real-world contexts. From governments and international organizations to the blind spots of Western crisis response, we’ll tackle the hard question: what actually makes a warning persuasive? 

Content

• The Politics of Persuasion: Understand why some warnings resonate while others are ignored — even when based on the same evidence.
• Institutional Blind Spots: Examine the internal dynamics of Western states and international organizations that enable or inhibit early action.
• Beyond Political Will: Challenge conventional wisdom and explore new frameworks for explaining (in)action in conflict prevention. 
• Case-Based Learning: Study real-world examples and “play” with fictional scenarios to understand successes and failures in warning-response — and extract practical insights.
• Interdisciplinary Lens: Combine tools from intelligence studies, peace studies, and foreign policy to analyze complex decision-making environments.