Trump, Putin og Zelenskyj

By Christian Uhre Di Gregorio

The war in Ukraine has become a clear source of frustration for U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite earlier promises that he could bring peace to Ukraine in just one day, Trump’s attempts to get Volodymyr Zelenskyj and Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table have so far failed. Ukrainian and Russian delegations have met again in Istanbul, though still without the participation of either president.—and once again without any agreement on a ceasefire. Following a large-scale Russian airstrike on Ukrainian cities a few days ago, Trump delivered a statement to the press, saying: "I don’t know what in the world has happened to Putin—he’s gone completely nuts!" 

According to Sten Rynning, professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences and the Danish Institute for Advanced Study (DIAS) at the University of Southern Denmark, there are no signs that a ceasefire is imminent. On the contrary, the conflict appears to be evolving into a test of Trump’s ability to handle Putin—a test that many observers believe he has so far struggled to pass.

“They’re nowhere near a ceasefire. Putin and Zelenskyj need to try to draft a memorandum that sets out conditions or parameters for moving forward, so that a ceasefire can be achieved, but Russia wants everything. That’s still their goal, and it’s not possible for Ukraine to accept a deal under those terms,” Rynning emphasizes.

Russia is waging war to install a puppet government in Kyiv and annex a large portion of the country. After several setbacks early in the war, Russia’s ambition is now to annex four eastern regions of Ukraine and secure recognition of its previous annexation of Crimea. Ukraine cannot accept any of this, Rynning elaborates. In addition, Russia demands that Ukraine adopt permanent neutral status—effectively denying the country NATO membership. President Trump, like Russia, has rejected Ukrainian NATO membership, while the European NATO countries and Canada continue to insist that the door must remain open.

Putin Is Leading Trump by the Nose

According to Rynning, one of Putin’s greatest strengths is his ability to read people’s weaknesses and manipulate those sitting across from him with remarkable effectiveness. In this way, he has been effective in exploiting Trump’s emotional leadership style to make him believe that Ukraine is really to blame for the war, and that Russia’s demands are moderate and reasonable. But the pressure on Donald Trump is beginning to mount, as time continues to pass without him delivering the peace he promised. Putin has also been quite successful in convincing Trump that the U.S. stands to gain a great deal from cooperating with Russia—possibly explaining why Trump has been so forceful toward Zelenskyj while behaving more mildly toward Putin.

Putin wants the war to continue, knowing full well that his terms are ones Ukraine cannot accept. He benefits from Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for the EU, and the longer the war drags on, the greater the chance he has of splitting the West—potentially shattering the European consensus behind Ukraine. Strategic communication is all about positioning and sowing uncertainty on the other side, using lies and manipulation to weaken the opponent. The strategy from the EU and Zelenskyj is to agree with Trump as much as possible, while Trump’s frustrated attempts to build a bridge to Putin make that task difficult, Rynning assesses.

Sanctions Could Have Serious Consequences for Russia

Throughout the negotiation process, Trump has been effective at twisting Zelenskyj’s arm, forcing him to the table by threatening to cut off military aid to Ukraine. However, he may once again be forced to do the opposite of what he had intended if he hopes to steer Putin toward a diplomatic solution. Trump is already frustrated that Putin is making him look weak—leaving him with two options for turning the screws on Putin.

According to Sten Rynning, Trump may have to put away the carrot and reach for the stick instead.

“There’s growing talk that both Europe and the U.S. should impose sanctions on those who buy Russian oil—so-called third-party sanctions. If that happens, it would have major consequences, because without oil revenues, Russia loses one of its most important sources of funding for the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the U.S. also has the option of changing course and actively increasing weapons deliveries to Ukraine. That would strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and apply further military pressure on Russia. The combination of economic and military pressure could be the key to changing the dynamics of the war.”

The key for Trump, then, will be to increase pressure on Putin and define a playing field that neither he nor Zelensky is allowed to stray from—if there’s to be any hope of getting closer to a ceasefire, Rynning concludes.