New study: Danmark and the Nordics have the largest stock of plastic per capita in the world

The Nordic countries – Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland – are often considered green frontrunners around the world. But when it comes to the consumption and recycling of plastic, this reputation is far from deserved.

That is the conclusion of a new study conducted by researchers from the University of Southern Denmark and the University of Cambridge.

The researchers found that countries like Denmark and Norway rank among the highest in the world in terms of plastic consumption. The study also shows that the Nordic region has the world’s largest stock of plastic per capita. On average, each northerner has 1,100 kg of plastic accumulated in objects around them. This is plastic still in use across society in everything from cars, electronics and everyday items to construction materials, cables and pipelines.

But perhaps the most surprising finding is that only 4–6% of the plastic is recycled domestically. Another 7-10% is exported outside the region for recycling. In total, the recycling rate for plastics in the Nordics stands around 13-14%.

Instead, between 70% and 90% is incinerated, depending on the country. Measured per capita, Denmark incinerates the most plastic in the Nordic region.

According to Wu Chen, associate professor at SDU Life Cycle Engineering and one of the researchers behind the study, the figures are striking:

- To be honest, I was quite surprised. At first, we doubted whether it could really be true, but this is what the data shows. We’ve cross-checked and validated it with many sources, so we’re confident these results are solid.

First study of its kind

This is the first time researchers have conducted a detailed mapping of the total material flow of plastic in the Nordic countries.

The few previous studies available for the region generally had a more limited scope.

In the current study, the researchers from SDU and Cambridge looked at 14 polymer groups, including all common polymers groups, as well as rubber, polymer fibers, and remaining thermoplastics and thermosets, which together account for nearly all plastics used in the region. Using the method called material flow analysis (MFA), they tracked the flow of plastics through society – from production or import to incineration, landfill or recycling – from 1978 to 2020.

- The high recycling rates you often see in statistics don’t reflect the real picture. They usually only include packaging plastics, which are a small part of total consumption, says Ciprian Cimpan, associate professor at SDU Life Cycle Engineering and another of the study’s authors.

The topic is timely, as Eurostat just published the latest packaging waste recycling statistics, which put Denmark (and the rest of the Nordics) among the worst performing in the EU, with 28% plastics packaging sent to recycling (reference year 2023).However, plastic packaging only accounts for about one third of all plastic consumption. The major problem is that the remaining plastic used in a myriad of products, buildings and infrastructure is almost entirely not recycled.

Poor performance in circular economy

The researchers also calculated potential solutions.

They conclude that with mechanical recycling, the recycling rate could reach 27%. But this would require almost a sevenfold increase in current capacity.

There is also the possibility of chemical recycling, which, when combined with mechanical recycling, could raise the Nordic recycling rate to nearly 50%. However, this would require collaboration with other countries that have larger plastic production capacities. Denmark, for example, has no domestic production of new plastic at all.

Finally, the researchers recommend investing in carbon capture technologies, since the Nordic countries rely heavily on incineration for district heating.

All in all, however, there is little indication that the Nordic region is heading in that direction.

- As things stand, those scenarios are very unrealistic. I would almost say impossible, because there is no economic incentive. It’s much cheaper just to continue as we do now, says Wu Chen.

The researchers hope the study will serve as a wakeup call – not least for policymakers, who have the power to use legislation to promote greater plastic recycling.

- I actually disagree when people say the Nordic countries are frontrunners in the circular economy. We talk a lot about recycling and have some good initiatives, but in reality, we’re not very good at keeping materials circulating in the economy compared to countries like the Netherlands or Germany. Sometimes, the green image just doesn’t match the facts, says Ciprian Cimpan.