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Disaggregated Forecasts

Economic, social and public health institutions rely on mortality forecasts to estimate, among other things, health care and disability costs, plan social security policies or estimate the pension cost in an aging population. There is then a demand for valid and coherent forecasts for general mortality, but also for some components of mortality, such as causes of death and disability levels. However, forecasts by cause of death and disability levels are confronted with different methodological problems and have so far failed to provide coherent forecasts between components of mortality.


Despite the methodological problems, such forecasts are still of interest for planners in public and private institutions. With such forecasts, the risks are known for diverse factors, as age, sex, cause of death, etc.; and spending (on research, capital investment, preventive measures or palliative care) could be more efficient. The elaboration of policies to reduce certain risk factors, specific causes of death or disabilities could be facilitated and ensure more effective results. Research on better ways to elaborate forecasts including health information are undertaken at CPop.



Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher (Coordinator)

James W. Vaupel

Jim Oeppen



Coherent mortality forecasts by cause of death and disability level

SCOR Corporate Foundation for Science, January to December 2020.


Last Updated 21.02.2024