New paper: Short-term forecasts of expected deaths, published in PNAS
In their paper Silvia Rizzi and James Vaupel introduce a simple but powerful method for analyzing mortality after a major shock. Their method makes short-term forecasts of the number of deaths that would have occurred if the coronavirus pandemic or other health catastrophe had not occurred. They apply the method to show, more conclusively than up to now, that Denmark, which imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, suffered considerably lower risks of death than Sweden, which did not impose a lockdown.
Method development for ageing research
