One in three Danes may have an unhealthy diet by 2040
Too little fruit, vegetables and fish – and too much fat in everyday meals. More and more Danes have an unhealthy diet, and a new analysis suggests the trend is likely to continue.
By 2040, around one in three Danes may have an unhealthy diet, according to a new projection from the National Institute of Public Health.
Since 2010, the percentage of adults in Denmark with an unhealthy dietary pattern has increased from 13.3% to 17.7% in 2021. And if current trends continue, that number is projected to rise to 28.3% by 2040.
“If this development continues, we’re looking at a significant increase in the number of Danes who eat unhealthily – with too much fat in their daily meals and not enough fruit, vegetables, and fish,” explains researcher Anne Vinggaard Christensen, one of the authors behind the analysis.
In the study, an unhealthy diet is defined based on self-reported data indicating a low intake of vegetables, fruit, and fish, combined with a high intake of fat. This pattern is linked to an increased risk of a range of diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, certain types of cancer, overweight, and obesity.
The analysis is based on data from approximately 650,000 Danes, covering the period from 2010 to 2021.
The figure shows the percentage with an unhealthy diet projected to 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. Data points from 2010 to 2021 are taken from the National Health Profile. Solid line points represent observed values; dotted line points represent estimated projections.
Men especially eat unhealthily
The projection shows that both men and women are eating more unhealthily than before – but men stand out.
In 2010, 8.8% of women and 18.1% of men had an unhealthy diet.
By 2040, this is expected to rise to 26.5% among women and 31.3% among men.
Looking at different age groups, young adults aged 16 to 29 may be the group with the highest share of unhealthy eaters in 2040: 30.6%.
Meals replaced by snacks and fast options
According to Anne Vinggaard Christensen, several factors may explain the trend. One likely explanation is changing eating habits, including a growing availability of fast and convenient food.
“We know from other studies that more Danes are eating fast food like burgers, pizza and shawarma. It’s often cheaper and more accessible, and it’s possible that this is increasingly replacing home-cooked meals,” she says.
Although healthy take-away options do exist, they’re typically more expensive – which can be a barrier, especially for people with fewer resources.
A glimpse into the future
The projection is based on data from the National Health Profile and population forecasts from Statistics Denmark. Data from 2010 to 2021 has been used to predict developments up to 2040.
Data collection for the next round of the National Health Profile is currently underway, and the results will provide an important indication of whether the trend seems to continue.
“We know that structural factors like price and accessibility play a major role in food choices. So if we want to reverse this trend, price regulation and restrictions on marketing of unhealthy foods can be effective tools,” says Anne Vinggaard Christensen.
She emphasizes that the projection should be interpreted with caution. It assumes that the dietary trends observed from 2010 to 2021 will continue unchanged until 2040. But if the trend is disrupted – for instance, due to policy initiatives or external factors – the projections may either over- or underestimate the future prevalence of unhealthy diets.
The projection was funded by the Ministry of the Interior and Health. In addition to diet, it also includes projections for smoking, alcohol consumption, sedentary leisure time, mental well-being, and obesity.
Contact: Researcher Anne Vinggaard Christensen, phone: 6550 9385, e-mail: anvi@sdu.dk, National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark