More People Will Live with Chronic Diseases in the Future
By 2040, more Danes are expected to live with chronic conditions such as type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower back pain, and breast cancer compared to today. Conversely, fewer are expected to suffer from depression, alcohol-related diseases, and heart disease, according to a new analysis.
In the coming decades, more Danes can expect to live with chronic illnesses. This applies particularly to lower back pain, but also to type 2 diabetes, COPD, and breast cancer, all of which are projected to increase in prevalence toward 2040.
This is the conclusion of a new analysis from the National Institute of Public Health, where researchers have projected the future prevalence and disease burden of seven major public health conditions.
The projections show, among other things, that as many as 1.5 million Danes will be living with lower back pain in 2040. This includes conditions such as general lower back and spinal pain as well as herniated discs – an increase of more than 400,000 cases compared to today.
“It is especially people of working age and older age groups who are expected to experience lower back pain in the future. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to this development. Back pain is uncomfortable for the individual, but also costly to society due to productivity loss,” says researcher Isabelle Pascale Mairey.
Increase in Breast Cancer and Diabetes Cases
Other chronic conditions are also expected to become more widespread. Breast cancer is projected to affect nearly 50,000 women in 2040, up from just under 40,000 today. The increase is not seen among women aged 50–64, where there is a decline, but rather among younger women aged 30–49 and older women aged 65 and over.
“The increased prevalence of breast cancer is primarily due to more women living longer with the disease,” explains Isabelle Pascale Mairey.
Type 2 diabetes is showing a similar trend: the number of people with the condition is expected to grow from approximately 270,000 today to nearly 375,000 in 2040. The increase is primarily driven by men and older adults.
Researchers point out that lifestyle factors and an aging population may play a significant role:
“It’s reasonable to view the increase in diabetes in light of an aging population,” says Isabelle Pascale Mairey.
Decline in Depression and Alcohol-Related Illness
But there is also good news. Several conditions are expected to decline in prevalence. This includes depression, which in 2022 affected more than half a million Danes. By 2040, that number may have dropped to approximately 347,000. The downward trend is observed across all age groups and is most evident among women.
Mairey emphasizes that the figures are based on hospital admissions for depression or prescriptions for antidepressant medication. The report does not include cases treated without medication by general practitioners or psychologists.
“It’s still important to focus on depression, as we’re simultaneously seeing a general rise in poor mental health in Denmark, especially among young people,” she says.
Alcohol-related diseases and ischemic heart disease (a category that includes heart attacks) also appear to be declining. Both conditions have already shown a downward trend in recent years, and this development is expected to continue.
For example, the number of people with alcohol-related illness may fall from nearly 100,000 in 2022 to around 72,000 in 2040.
Projections Come with Uncertainty
The analysis is based on data from national health registries and the Danish National Health Profile. It provides an estimate of disease prevalence up to 2040, assuming current trends continue.
The report notes that projections are always subject to uncertainty and do not account for major public health reforms or breakthroughs in medical treatment.
“We can use the analysis to get an overview of which diseases the healthcare system and society must increasingly prepare to manage if current trends continue. This knowledge can serve as a basis for planning and prioritizing public health interventions, as well as education and research,” says Isabelle Pascale Mairey.
The figure shows the prevalence of the included diseases in the years 2022 and 2040. For lower back pain, the years are 2021 and 2040.
Contact: Researcher Isabelle Pascale Mairey, E-mail: ipa@sdu.dk, Phone:+45 6550 7709, National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark