Abstract: How rapidly does the risk of death rise with age for older people? This rate of aging determines remaining life expectancy and the spread of remaining lifetimes. This morning I will present a radical theory: the rate of increase with age in senescent mortality is invariant for all individuals in all populations both today and in the past. Most deaths today in long-lived populations occur after age 80 and the underlying cause of most, perhaps nearly all, of these deaths is old age. The risk of death varies greatly across individuals because of diverse healthcare, environmental and genetic factors; substantial progress is being made in reducing mortality even at advanced ages. The rate of increase with age in the risk of death, however, may be the same for everyone, about 16% per year, a much higher rate of increase than previously estimated. If true, this theory will open new vistas both for demographic studies of aging populations and biological and biomedical studies of aging individuals. Limited evidence supports the theory; some directions for tests of the theory are suggested.
The meeting will be held online via Zoom.