National transfer accounts (NTA) approach in the estimation of the Covid-19 burden. Evidence from Post-Soviet space

In this paper we follow the approaches by Hanly & Sharp (2014) who took the non-paid household labour in the mortality estimation and Vogt & Kluge (2015) with their NTA implementation in the mortality disparities. The research is devoted to the estimation of the economic losses from the premature mortality and particularly the Covid-19 pandemics, based on NTA and NTTA methodology. Our preliminary results based on the Russian NTA 2019 version and the discrepancies between 2020 and 2022 demographic projection losses demonstrated short-term 0,5%  decrease in Income due to the excess mortality as well as the 0,7% decrease in Consumption (more than 3% in 65+ group), followed by 3,5% decline of public transfers and about the same growth of private transfers. In the longer period (until 2035)the pandemics lead to the deficit decrease, but for the private transfers the situation is not so clear. For the further estimations time budgets and the preliminary results for pandemic year 2020 will be taken into consideration. For example we will look at the economic losses that take into consideration the unpaid labour (mainly rather a high figure at the early pension age). Additionally, to the Russian case the materials from Moldova and Kyrgyzstan upon the permission with these countries teams are expected to be presented as robustness checks.

• Register here