Abstract: When forecasting age-specific death rates, the widely applied Lee-Carter-type procedure often leads to underestimated future gains in life expectancy as the method does not capture age-specific mortality improvement over the forecast horizon. In an effort to overcome the latter, this study suggests applying the Lee-Carter-type framework to survival-dependent rather than age-dependent death rates, taking advantage of the more constant time-pattern of mortality at a given survival level than at a given age. In addition, the study suggests a slightly modified Lee-Carter-type estimation procedure by applying Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA).
The meeting will be held in person at O 94 Konference Ø5‐206‐1 and online via Zoom.